Correct estimate of the potential of our urban population is not only related to the determination of the Chinese economic growth potential, but also to determine the relationship between the development trend of related industries such as real estate market of。 We had a very familiar argument is that when a country's urban population accounted for between 30-70%, then the population is urbanized countries in the acceleration phase, and the current proportion of Chinese urban resident population of 53 %, therefore, China's rural population is still in the stage of accelerating urbanization。 If the judgment is correct, it means that China's economic growth potential is still huge, the real estate market boom will continue for。 It really true?The author expressed doubts about the 53% urbanization rate of China's population。
If 53% of China's total population in urban areas, the corresponding should be 47% of the population in rural areas。
But the reality is not the case in rural areas, no matter in what region of China, almost all rural young people have left the countryside into the cities, in the countryside still flow mainly the elderly and children, as well as physically disabled people。 In short, the old, weak, sick, disabled flow in the countryside, while almost all of the young labor force entered the town。
Although these young people are not completely out of the countryside, but most of them are no longer engaged in agricultural production, even if also engaged in agricultural production, agricultural income is no longer dominant。
There is a big difference between the author of these observations and statistics are correct concern。 In terms of quantity, still stay in rural areas the old, weak, sick, disabled and the total proportion of the population should be around 30%, will not exceed 35%。 So it is estimated that the current urban resident population ratio should be 65% -70% of the total population, far higher than the current statistics。 Why proportion of the population of official statistics underestimate the urbanization of the population?This is the problem requires a careful analysis of。
As local government officials, expanding population base means that the per capita economic indicators will be reduced, detrimental to their performance evaluation, therefore, the resident population of the city is undervalued is consistent with reasonable。
Objectively speaking, the frequent movement of population and indeed quite difficult to bring demographic。
If the author's estimate of the actual situation, it means that China's population urbanization process has basically ended, the urbanization as a driving force for future economic growth expectations may be dashed。
Not only that, China in the future there will be counter-urbanization phenomenon。
From the age structure of migrant workers to see the first batch of migrant workers are mostly 60 and 70, they are the product of the peak period of new China's first population, these people's childhood was spent in rural areas, life is very hard some people in the rural areas are still engaged in heavy physical labor, they yearn for city life, tolerance limits of the environment is very high, they are hard-working common feature。
When these migrant workers lay down simple farm machinery, plant and into the modern city combined with the machine, greatly improved production efficiency, create amazing productivity。
Let China is rapidly becoming the world's factory is the great contribution of this group。
However, after 60 and 70 of these people are now middle-aged, old and feeble will soon enter the stage, more and more difficult to continue to work hard in the city, while the city and not because they have contributed and to provide them with appropriate old-age security, they will be forced to return to rural areas, continue to work in agriculture。 China Development and Reform Commission officials have recently seen from the sales trend Fuling mustard, Chinese migrant workers reflux trend evident: the National Development and Reform Commission Planning Division officials found, Fuling mustard share of sales in southern China from 49% in 2007, 48% in 2008, 2009 the mid-% 2010% to 2011% decline, accounting for half of the country to fall from 30%。 This data shows that the population outflow speed is very fast in South China。 Director of the Fuling mustard Group Guangzhou Office Cheng also confirmed this phenomenon, population reflux for sales affect a large area of the South China large。
He said the past eight years, the market share decline significantly in Guangdong。 From the growth rate is concerned, the year 2011, Central China, Central China, Northwest China revenue growth of 45% -57% range over the previous year, while southern China is only% growth。
What this phenomenon means that the next few years means that we may not be the acceleration of urbanization, which is likely to be the inverse of urbanization。 Urbanization means increased productivity, then, counter-urbanization means lower productivity。 The new central leadership has clearly see the problem, to "people of the city" and hope that through a series of reforms to truly migrant workers into urban residents。
I believe that housing, health care, pension and other guarantees do it too complicated, you can start with education, first of all to the children of migrant workers the right to equal access to education, the only way to make the next generation of migrant workers is expected to become a true citizen。
If this is difficult to achieve, people of urbanization can only be empty talk。