Text / Sina Finance chief commentator Ai Tong Ming [] micro-channel public number: Old Ai Kan shares Hello everyone New Year!In a flash, the Spring Festival holiday is over, we will soon usher in the Year of the Dog Trading Day。 First of all I wish you all a happy New Year and good luck!Of course, for our investors, the most important thing to a lot of money, I wish you a big fat Year of the Dog!Niugu much effort, to earn the daily limit!  Looking first trading day of the new year, of course, we hope to usher in the opener, but over the years from the statistical data, the probability of a good start in the new year after more than eighty percent。 As long as there is no big bad during the Spring Festival, the probability of a good start in the New Year often high, after all, New Year weather, New Year's expectations for the market, they tend to hold out approach。
  The view from the Spring Festival holiday, the fundamentals are still relatively warm, domestic basically not too many things, after all, the various departments are also on holiday。 The main impact of the trend after the holiday is the performance of the situation outside the disk, which is before the holiday we are most worried。
But fortunately, the outer disk performance during the Spring Festival is also good, especially stocks without regeneration thing, broad based global stock markets, a good start after the holiday to create a favorable external environment。   From the performance of our holiday after a four-day US stocks point of view, up three days down one day。 % Dow rose, rose Nasdaq%, up 2% P 500。
Europe and Asia-Pacific stock markets also rose mainly in particular, and we are most closely related to the strong performance of Hong Kong stocks, in two and a half we closed the trading day's two up one down, the Hang Seng Index rose a total of 3%, the cumulative Enterprises Index rose %。   There are not bad, but the main external market rose again, a good start would be the Year of the Dog achieve a high probability event, it is likely to be opened and moved higher, with the huge candle to the successful completion of the first trading day of the Dog。
  For all of us, before the holiday in advance ambush layout, Festival opener enjoy smooth red envelope, is naturally a very happy thing people。
And for those who have short positions for the holidays, do not be too lost, after all, people holding festivals of the people to bear the risk of uncertainty holidays。 So old Ai had said before the holiday, the number of positions held by the holidays, depending on your risk tolerance, risk and return are directly proportional to the market is always fair。
  But even in the hands of not too many positions, although in the post to face higher open, but if there intraday drop, still can bargain layout。 After all, we do not one or two days of the stock market, the new year, we can consider some of the more long-term, what species distribution in the new year, what action to take policy?Even if it is not able to achieve great success in the Year of the Rooster, but we can have a good look at the Dog planning operational plans, always hopeful to fight, it is the most valuable spirit of Chinese investors!  As the saying goes to the poor pig, dog to the rich, opened in mid-2006 Year of the Dog 6124 magnificent bull market。 In mid-1994 Dog Xianyihouyang have, in less than two months, the market achieved double the gains。 But do not expect this year's Year of the Dog market too volatile, it is best to achieve steady rise。   For the full year trend, due to the end of a wave of chicken fell, but rose in the dog leaves room。
A shares on itself, its economy and there is no problem, the capacity to de-leveraging has basically come to an end, from the economic data, after a large dip type, there have been significant recovery stabilization of the situation, and the General Assembly this year is not too aggressive introduction of bad policy。   In fact, the biggest variable is still the external disk market, especially in US stocks and Hong Kong stocks trend, which went mainly US stocks, after walking for 2089 bull market, a wave of recent market crash, investors can really stabilize still we need to pay close attention。 Although the relationship between A-shares and the outer disk is not great, but if you encounter extreme market by the emotional contagion, but also result in indirect impacts。   On the stock market itself, as the representative of the SSE 50 blue chips although in a wave of good bull market of 2017, but the overall valuation is not very high, as the majority of small-cap stocks, take a look at the GEM, to know , a large number of stocks are low in recent years, there is oversold bounce space。 So put aside external factors aside, the A-share opportunity is still a lot of。   First, the blue-chip is still possible to continue to dominate the market last year, led the market, especially if the A-share stocks further to Hong Kong's mature markets such as style, as the representative of blue-chip style Hengqiang likely to persist。   The second is to create small and medium cap stocks, represented by the value after Ebb Tide and found some really high-quality growth stocks come to the fore, will usher in the rise of opportunity。 But a lot of you want to form a broad based small-cap stocks is still difficult, unless coming wave of 07 or 15-year bull market, the market would be difficult to form a broad based pattern。
  Market to structural market-based, long-term form of differentiation between individual stocks, the future will be characterized by long-term A-share market。
There is a saying that good, at all times quotes, Year of the Dog, too, but the requirements of stock-picking ability will be increasingly high, the operation of scientific strategy is the key to winning。
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