Sina Wall Street Beijing 28 hearing speaking, the current US economic situation is closer to normal than at any time since the end of the Great Recession, but this is only "close" only, rather than a true return to normal。 This is a market observation judgment, they explains this special article。
  Although consumer spending has improved, but still below the pre-recession level, consumer confidence was much the same。   As for business, the pace of investment in mitigation, the more free cash flow into stock buybacks and dividends – there are many looking for ways to migrate headquarters overseas to avoid tax, caused the recent conferences and a variety of hot debate。   At the same time, federal, state and local governments have had to shrink spending。
  As a result, the unemployment rate by a full six years before returning to the level of mid-2006 before coming close to recession。   Even now, there are 15.7 million Americans unable to find full-time work, this figure compared with the same period in the history of other recovery, it is still at a high level。
Needless to say, millions of Americans have adequate skills for less than 65 years old, but have given up looking for work in the year, so that labor force participation rate is reduced to the lowest point since President Carter era。
  However, in mid-2015, although still made some modest, but steady progress is – this is the so-called new normal, it。
  US economic growth% each month, 200,000 jobs, so the unemployment rate down to the lowest post-recession era 5%。 Because narrow unemployed, the greater the pressure raises some companies even begin to face, average hourly earnings growth rate reached its fastest recovery。
  Car sales also hit a new high, although this is largely because the car used in the current age of the vehicle has reached record levels, many cars and trucks can not update。 Ultra-low interest rates and lax lending standards also played no small role。   At the same time, the real estate market continued out of the road to recovery after the collapse of the modern history of the most terrible。 A limited number of the residential buildings have been a lot better, builders has become the biggest problem with the lack of qualified technical workers, as well as meet strict standards of consumer lending。
  In this context, the Fed finally hands in December, the first time since mid-2006 has pressed the button to raise interest rates, ending the era of near-zero interest rates for up to seven years。
This era will last for so long, is precisely reflect the performance of the US economy is how the poor。
  "Growth should slow to some extent be attributed to the chaos of the post-crisis era。 Too bad the financial crisis。 People witnessing their friends have lost their jobs, lost their homes or were forced to take a pay cut。 "PrincipalGlobalInvestors chief global economist Bauer (BobBaur) explained," is the same business。
The Fed cut interest rates to zero, there is no stimulus is expected to play in, the key here。 "The last batch of economic reports in mid-2015 is expected to re-strengthen the impression that the situation is gradually improving, but even so, we are now the growth rate is still less than the historical average of%。
  December consumer confidence index will be improved, after all, the lowest gasoline prices over the years put in there。 First-time filings for unemployment benefits from the situation seems, the number of layoffs has been reduced to the lowest since mid-1973。 Residential sales are expected to rise again。   But, at the same time, the government is expected to trade probably would not be so ideal。 Strong dollar and a weak global economy determines the demand for US manufactured goods can not be strong, so that the interests of exporters suffer。   Manufacturing and other major US business sales and profits in the mid-2015 a lot of time has been the economic headwinds, due to poor performance, a direct impact on their desire to increase the number of employees。 This situation is expected to continue at least until early next year。
  Accompanied by moving closer to 2016, the most important issue is that we will once again suffered a bad winter weather, and had to once again face a bad first quarter?  US economy since 2010, the first quarter growth rate averaged only%。
In sharp contrast, there was the second to the fourth quarter, respectively%,%,%。
  If such a law once again fulfilled, then the Fed is difficult to quickly raise rates。 Instead, the Fed must also be repeated hair, he said he would remain calm, step by step, so it shows the attitude of the economy in the foreseeable future also needs support。   "As long as the US economic recovery is still falter, the Federal Reserve interest rates return to normal doomed journey will be long marathon。 "BankoftheWest chief economist Anderson (ScottAnderson) says。
(Zijin)。